Developing an Agent-Based Model (ABM) to Explore the Geographic Redistribution of Snowmobilers During a Record Warm Winter

Abstract

Canada's snowmobile industry is the second largest market in the world, with Ontario generating over $3 billion in economic activity and supporting over 10,000 full time jobs. Inter-annual climate variability and record warm winters have underscored the vulnerability of the industry, which is predicated on natural snowfall and low temperatures to support over 100,000 riders across the 33,000 kilometers network of trails. However, critical regional and methodological gaps limit our understanding of the vulnerability of snowmobiling to both current conditions and projected climate change, with no available research that empirically explores the dynamic relationship between supply- and demand-side responses to marginal climatic conditions. The presented research develops an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate how trail availability influences the spatial redistribution of snowmobilers across Ontario. Using the record warm 2023/2024 winter season as a climate analogue, the ABM was informed by a geospatial analysis of trail network availability (i.e., supply-side vulnerability) and the results from an online survey of snowmobilers' (n=161) (i.e., demand-side vulnerability). Results from the geospatial analysis revealed significant trail closures across the province, with 14 districts having ≤5% trail availability in December followed by an early end to the season (≤1% of trails available in March). Survey findings revealed that 90.4% reducing riding frequency in response to trail closures, but strong willingness to travel (e.g., 61.5% travelled to alternative trails outside their preferred district due to closures, averaging 239.8km for day trips and 861.1km for overnight trips). The ABM simulated the movement of 1,000 snowmobiler agents across the 16 districts, resulting in significant redistribution patterns that underscore differential climate risks, such that some districts gained market share (e.g., Districts 1 and 3) while others incurred substantial losses (e.g., Districts 11 and 6). Collectively, the results suggest the future of snowmobiling in Ontario may involve substantial geographical shifts rather than outright market collapse, with important implications for tourism planning and rural economic development in a warming world.