Understanding Fast and Slow Variables as a Means to Effectively Manage Implications of Rapid Change in Karimunjawa National Park, Indonesia

Abstract

This research examined social-ecological regime shifts (SERS), in Karimunjawa National Park, in Indonesia, which is home to primarily small-scale fishers. This study largely followed a conceptual understanding of critical slow variables that are often formed over multiple years within a complex social-ecological system. Such slow forming variables including wealth and infrastructure, and fish biomass and biodiversity are important because they determine system functions and interact with fast variables such as local income and fishing efforts to form feedback interactions. Frequent system changes amongst fast variables can cause unpredictable and irreversible change in slow variables, that usually take years and decades to manifest. Local coastal communities are often forced to adapt to ecological changes when the continuity of their natural resource dependent livelihoods, that are extractive and exploitive, is deemed unsustainable. This research used a qualitative and inductive approach, to understand interactions among fast and slow variables to determine any indications of a social-ecological regime shift. Data collection methods included semi-structured interviews with key informants (n=60), surveys (n=27), and focus groups. The main objectives that guided this research are: 1) examining fast and slow changing variables within the social and ecological subsystems of Karimunjawa National Park in order to understand the phenomenon of rapid change; 2) identifying local responses to social-ecological change in order to assess local adaptive capacity; and 3) determining governance implications associated with the interactions and outcomes of fast and critical slow variables in Karimunjawa National Park. The results indicated that understanding feedback interactions amongst fast and slow variables can provide insights on dual directionality of drivers of change with implications on targeted management of critical slow variables. In a social-ecological system, local autonomy and empowerment with appropriate monitoring efforts can be found to enhance the management of slow forming variables and foster resilience.