Modeling the Deformation Regime of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, Using a Simple Flow Reaction for Ice Anisotropy (ESTAR)

Abstract

ce deformation dominates the evolution of ice shelf flow and the slow-moving regions in the interior of ice sheets. However, deformation may be poorly represented in large-scale ice sheet models that use the Glen flow relation, due to its questionable applicability to the steady-state flow of anisotropic ice that prevails in ice sheets, having been derived from secondary creep rates of isotropic ice. We assess the deformation regimes of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, using the Glen and “Empirical Scalar Tertiary Anisotropy Regime”, (ESTAR) flow relations, the latter being derived from steady-state deformation rates of anisotropic ice. For grounded ice, the character of the flow relation determines the contribution of deformation to overall flow, with ESTAR producing greater bed-parallel shear deformation than the standard Glen flow relation. The ESTAR experiments show larger basal shear stress maxima than the standard Glen experiment because ESTAR treats the responses to simple shear stresses and compression stresses differently, reducing the role of lateral and longitudinal stresses in momentum balance. On the Thwaites Glacier Tongue, ESTAR provides the best match to observed speeds by accounting for the differing effects of stresses on ice flow. Our results highlight the importance of the numerical description of anisotropy, particularly: In regions of transition from deformation-dominated to sliding-dominated flow; in the approach to the grounding line, and across ice shelves. Given the importance of these locations in determining mass flux into the ocean, our results have implications for projections of sea level change from Antarctic ice loss.