Does initial background matter in evaluating Light Rail Transit feasibility in North America mid-size cities?

Abstract

A transit system may be one of the most profoundly influential investments in modern cities. In declining cities, local governments consider new transit investment as medicine to cure their problems. However, in emerging cities, transit investment is considered a booster. Considering the complexity and uncertainty, a feasibility study for Light Rail Transit systems is very challenging. Existing studies usually follow a similar assessment method. With different starting backgrounds, the transit systems could have significantly different performances. Typical assessment methods fail in every project. Many LRT projects failed to meet their design goals. Existing research and planning processes usually do not take a city’s initial condition as a meaningful factor in the assessment process. This research aims at exploring if the initial condition is an influential factor in the success of transit investment and the performance of the transit project. The City of Buffalo and Region of Waterloo are selected as two case studies to achieve this goal. They have dramatically different initial conditions and LRT performance. A series of demographic and social-economic census data are collected to complete a multi-variable analysis. This research shows that the initial condition has a critical impact on the transit investment, and the declining city cannot automatically benefit from the transit investment.