Impacts of Urban Intensification on the Production of Urban Ecosystem Services - A Case Study of the Regional Municipality of Waterloo

Abstract

As cities grow and intensify, the pressure on urban ecosystems to deliver essential services—such as clean air, water regulation, food production, and green space—continues to rise. In increasingly dense urban environments, the continuity and quality of these services are challenged not only by the reduction in green space but also by the form and pattern of urban growth. While compact development is often promoted as a sustainable alternative to urban sprawl, its ecological impacts remain contested, particularly in mid-sized urban regions like the Regional Municipality of Waterloo, where built forms and land use patterns are highly diverse and spatially uneven. This study examines how different urban intensification patterns between 2013 and 2023 have influenced the production and spatial distribution of urban ecosystem services (UESs) across the Region. Using a 1 km² grid-based framework, urban areas are classified into typologies based on impervious surface ratios, and the degree of intensification is quantified using changes in building footprint and height. The analysis focuses on seven key UESs—food production, freshwater quantity and quality, air temperature regulation, air quality, stormwater runoff, and green space availability. By identifying trade-offs and synergies in their spatial behaviour through ecosystem service bundles, the study highlights how different urban landscapes exhibit distinct ecological patterns. Regression and correlation analyses further reveal how land cover changes and intensification levels drive these outcomes. Findings underscore that the impacts of intensification are neither uniform nor linear; rather, they vary significantly across urban, peri-urban, and rural areas. While compact urban cores may show resilience in some services, they also face challenges like increased runoff and temperature rise. In contrast, sprawling developments often lead to fragmented ecosystems and more acute service degradation. These insights emphasise the need for spatially informed and context-sensitive planning strategies that recognise ecosystem interdependencies and aim to protect and enhance urban ecological functions amidst continued growth.