Planning

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This is the collection for the University of Waterloo's School of Planning.

Research outputs are organized by type (eg. Master Thesis, Article, Conference Paper).

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Now showing 1 - 4 of 4

Does initial background matter in evaluating Light Rail Transit feasibility in North America mid-size cities?
(University of Waterloo, 2024-08-30) Yu, Shangwei; Casello, Jeff; Feick, Rob
A transit system may be one of the most profoundly influential investments in modern cities. In declining cities, local governments consider new transit investment as medicine to cure their problems. However, in emerging cities, transit investment is considered a booster. Considering the complexity and uncertainty, a feasibility study for Light Rail Transit systems is very challenging. Existing studies usually follow a similar assessment method. With different starting backgrounds, the transit systems could have significantly different performances. Typical assessment methods fail in every project. Many LRT projects failed to meet their design goals. Existing research and planning processes usually do not take a city’s initial condition as a meaningful factor in the assessment process. This research aims at exploring if the initial condition is an influential factor in the success of transit investment and the performance of the transit project. The City of Buffalo and Region of Waterloo are selected as two case studies to achieve this goal. They have dramatically different initial conditions and LRT performance. A series of demographic and social-economic census data are collected to complete a multi-variable analysis. This research shows that the initial condition has a critical impact on the transit investment, and the declining city cannot automatically benefit from the transit investment.
Geographic and Demographic Suitability of Cycling in North American Cities
(University of Waterloo, 2022-09-13) Leung, Jeffrey; Casello, Jeff
With interest in cycling increasing in recent decades, local authorities and planners have been eager to enact policies to expedite a mode shift from driving to more sustainable, equitable and accessible transportation options. However, promoting cycling has encountered many challenges within car- dominated cities in North America. Previous research on the factors that influence cycling have cited geography-related concerns such as weather, elevation changes, and low land-use density as main reasons for not choosing to cycle (Pucher & Buehler, 2021). Similarly, it is understood that a city’s demographics, particularly the age distribution and physical capacity of residents, may influence the likelihood to cycle. This thesis discusses the geographic and demographic analysis of the suitability of cycling in four North American cities of various sizes, densities, geographies, and climate. Vancouver (BC) and Portland (OR), Waterloo (ON) and Madison (WI) are evaluated for their physical and demographic attributes that either promote or limit the propensity to cycle. The research then examines the planning responses in each city aimed at overcoming these challenges. The results of the research reveal both positive and negative attributes. For example, Portland and Vancouver have much more conducive climate, while Waterloo and Madison have demographics (students) that have greater tendency to cycle. While variability exists in the physical and demographic attributes, the results demonstrate that those cities that have addressed their shortcomings have achieved greater cycling mode shares. The approaches and lessons learned from this work present a structure for cities to recognize their strengths, identify their weaknesses, and tailor the policies and investments to make cycling a more comfortable mode of transport for everyone – particularly those for whom physical or other limitations may present limiting factors.
A Homogeneity-based Zone Delineation Model for Land Use and Transportation Interaction Analysis: Investigating the Case of Light Rail Transit (LRT) Development in Kitchener – Waterloo
(University of Waterloo, 2022-01-31) Fard, Pedram; Casello, Jeff
In an ever-increasingly urbanized world, planning policies bring direct and indirect societal and environmental impacts affecting quality of life for millions of people. Policy decisions are often complex, involving trade-offs between competing interests and high degrees of uncertainties. Quantitative methods have been used to understand the complexity of urban dynamics, to evaluate the alternative future scenarios and ultimately to help make more informed decisions. Despite the advantages these methods offer, they have been criticized for being ad-hoc, complicated and sensitive to the arbitrary choice of the indicators and the spatial scales of analysis. In particular, transportation analysis and modeling often rely on pre-set structures of Traffic (or Transportation) Analysis Zones (TAZs) to conceptualize geographic space as it relates to urban activities and transportation flows. Theory suggests that appropriately created spatial structures for transportation analysis should represent areas with homogeneous characteristics in terms of land uses and activities. Reviewing literature indicates that conventional TAZs do not necessarily provide satisfactory levels of homogeneity due primarily to the insufficiency of density as the primary measure to create these zones and the arbitrary use of roadways in breaking the zones boundaries. As we move towards an era in which new mobility modes emerge and modern data sources open up great opportunities, it is necessary to rethink the way we conceptualize space within land use and transportation system interactions (LUTI) studies. This research is motivated by the idea that land use diversity is equally important as densities (and other attributes) to define the spatial unit of analysis. The research aims to advance understanding of the impacts caused by the choice of analysis zones on the travel behavior and land use development analysis outcomes. This dissertation develops an enhanced measure of heterogeneity (i.e., land use diversity) and applies this measure to create a dynamic zonal structure through an iterative spatial aggregation method. This algorithm combines the input disaggregate zones that have similar diversity levels but also assembled from similar disaggregate land uses that make up their diversity. The developed spatial models are examined and validated using a set of disaggregate land use, travel behavior and the building permits data from Waterloo Region in southern Ontario, Canada. This research examines the effects of land use heterogeneity and access to rapid transit on an ongoing urban dynamic in this fast-growing mid-size metropolitan region. The first set of analyses explores the suitability of the proposed zonal structure – called Dynamic Activity Cluster Zones (DACZs) – compared to a commonly used pre-defined TAZ system and a graph-based spatial clustering model. The results indicate the advantages of the DACZ model in terms of concurrently creating more homogeneous zones with balanced size distribution. A sensitivity analysis is then performed to evaluate the robustness of the DACZ model in producing reliable zonal structures as a function of three parameters including aggregation heterogeneity threshold, levels of adjacency, and the original (input) spatial disaggregation. The results show that the model is effective in generating zones for which the size is defined as a function of homogeneity, as a result, these zones will generate more predictable outcomes in travel behavior modeling and analysis. The second work investigates the regional daily travel behavior data aggregated and compared for both the DACZ and a conventional TAZ structure used in the regional planning called PLUM (an acronym for Population and Land Use Model). The comparisons reveal that the impacts of built environment homogeneity on travel behavior are more pronounced within DACZs, where the dynamic zones effectively capture variations of the active transportation and public transit mode shares. This analysis also uncovers a varying pattern of mode share and the average travel times across the built environment categories identified based on the population density and land use diversity levels; by increasing the levels of population density and land use diversity more trips are shown to be made by non-auto modes. This outcome supports the LUTI theories which contend that areas with diverse land uses and high population density are more conducive to active transportation and public transit trips. The third investigation seeks to understand how the introduction of proposed and actual rapid transit investments are related to land use development trends. In a temporal analysis, the historical building permit data from 2000 to 2019 are analyzed focusing on two periods before and after the LRT project funding announcement (2010-2011). The adjusted permits construction values are calculated and compared across multiple scales including the study area, relative to the Regions’ Central Transit Corridor (CTC) and within different heterogeneous built environment categories. The results identify areas that have disproportionately attracted more and higher valued developments, especially after announcement of the LRT project funding. The outcomes also confirm the role of higher levels of land use diversity and access to rapid transit on attracting greater scale of land use developments, while the density is found to have minimal association with this trend. In summary, this study advances the research on land use and transportation system interactions by (i) articulating a novel spatial unit of analysis through developing and applying an enhanced homogeneity index and a spatial aggregation model, (ii) examining the associations between travel behavior patterns and heterogeneous built environment characteristics, (iii) providing insights on the development trends across Waterloo Region at multiple spatial-temporal scales that can be used in ongoing regional policy and planning evaluations, (iv) more generally facilitating the land use and transportation integration in planning and policy development through assessment and dissemination of a set of rigorous spatial modeling methods.
Understanding Factors Associated With Commuter Rail Ridership - A Demand Elasticity Study of the GO Transit Rail Network
(University of Waterloo, 2021-05-05) Shantz, Aaron; Casello, Jeff; Woudsma, Clarence
Mode share in major North American cities is currently dominated by private automobile use. Planners have theorized that transitioning commuter rail systems to regional rail networks is a viable method to increase ridership and stabilize mode share. This process is currently underway in Ontario, Canada, as the amount and frequency of service is being increased throughout the GO Transit rail network via the GO Expansion Program. However, previous studies have shown that transit demand does not solely respond to service quantity expansions. Variables related to the built environment, regional economy, network characteristics, and socioeconomic status of the customer base can influence transit demand to varying degrees. Further, the literature states that the travel behavior of commuter rail users is unique, as access mode, distance, socioeconomic status, and the utility derived from varying trip types can differ compared to local transit users. These findings suggest that supplementary policies might be needed to reduce automobile reliance and stimulate demand for regional transit. Many transit researchers have conducted demand elasticity studies to identify what factors are significantly associated with transit ridership. However, no researcher has conducted this type of analysis specific to the GO Transit rail system. The purpose of this thesis is to fill this gap. Through literature review, variables significantly associated with transit demand were first identified. Station-level datasets were then compiled at monthly intervals from January 2016 to December 2019. During this process, station catchment areas estimated using PRESTO smartcard data were used to extract data related to land use, socioeconomic, and demographic indicators. Additional factors related to station access, service quantity, and availability of substitute transport modes were also compiled. A random effect linear panel data estimator was then applied to obtain demand elasticity estimates. Of the variables included in the analysis, this study finds that several variables such as service quantity, population density, fuel price, and unemployment rate are significantly associated with transit demand, regardless of trip type examined. Ridership was also responsive to employment density and seasonal variation, although differing signs were shown depending on trip type examined. Surprisingly, demand was relatively unresponsive to enhanced station access options, including park and ride capacity and the quality of feeder bus connections. The results suggest that policies in addition to the service quantity improvements as outlined in the GO Expansion Program should be considered to further increase system demand. Those aimed towards heightened densities and land use diversities around rail stations, increasing the cost of private automobile operation, and the implementation of competitive fare price strategies are outlined. Notably, desktop research revealed that policies related to these factors have been previously explored by provincial stakeholders. However, only service improvements as proposed within the GO Expansion Program have been committed too. Knowing that demand is responsive to these factors could increase the level of political willingness needed to implement these policies to further increase ridership and subsequently balance mode share. These findings could also be used by Metrolinx to justify the allocation of resources needed to update or implement policies within the study area. Overall, this study highlights that many factors, including those related to the built environment, network characteristics, and the price / availability of substitute transport options are significantly associated with commuter rail demand. Therefore, integrated planning policies should be considered by transit agencies undergoing similar network transitions to ensure that ridership is increased to the greatest extent possible.

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Browsing Planning by Author "Casello, Jeff"